By Brian Matambo | January 28, 2026

Kasama District heads into a mayoral by-election tomorrow following the untimely death of Mayor Theresa Kolala, who passed away on December 5, 2025. The Electoral Commission of Zambia has set January 29 as polling day. While the political narratives will inevitably multiply as voting approaches, the outcome of this contest will not be determined by noise, emotion, or last-minute theatrics. It will be decided by arithmetic, turnout patterns, and disciplined result management.

This piece is written strictly from publicly available electoral data and routine analytical methods. It does not speculate on intent or outcome. My goal is to draw our attention to the real numbers, the voters so that we can pay close attention to what matters most. This by-election is not the kind that you monitor casually. The people on the ground should know which polling station bring in the most voters and make sure they protect those votes.

Across Kasama Central and Lukashya constituencies, the district carries 138,286 registered voters, made up of 66,030 men and 72,256 women. Kasama Central accounts for 72,091 registered voters, while Lukashya accounts for 66,195. In a by-election context, I am not expecting turnout to exceed 20 percent, translating to roughly 27,700 voters at most. Historically, voter turn out shrinks in by-elections, and margins of victory usually sit inside a small number of high-volume wards. That reality also creates temptation for confusion through delayed reporting, selective updates, or results that appear to drift after initial announcements.

The first operational truth is concentration. The largest wards are not merely important; they are the backbone of electoral credibility. Kupumaula Ward in Lukashya leads the entire Kasama scope with 20,462 registered voters. It is followed by Mulilansolo Ward in Kasama Central with 17,951, then Buseko Ward with 14,448, and Chiba Ward in Lukashya with 11,524. If results from these wards are slow, inconsistent, or contradict what was posted at polling stations, the opposition should not debate feelings. That is an integrity alert and must be treated as such, using documented station-level evidence.

The second truth is the deception of early results. Smaller wards often report faster and can create a misleading narrative if people begin celebrating or panicking before the heavy wards are declared. In this Kasama scope, the smallest wards include Lusenga with 2,486 registered voters, Musowa with 3,199, Kapanda with 3,382, Chumba with 3,568, and Lualuo with 3,603. These numbers are real, but their weight is limited. Allowing early returns from small wards to dominate public conversation creates perfect cover for mischief, hidden behind manufactured momentum while the major wards remain outstanding.

Then comes the level where elections are actually won or lost: polling stations. In Kupumaula Ward, Lukashya, the largest polling stations are clear and non-negotiable points of focus. Kapongolo Primary School-01 has 997 registered voters. Kapongolo Primary School-02 has 997. Kapongolo Primary School-03 also has 997. These three stations carry near-maximum volumes and therefore demand the tightest observation and fastest reporting.

The play, therefore, is simple, traditional, and effective. The opposition must run a results protection operation, not a rumor mill. Every polling station result should be captured the moment it is posted, transmitted to a central results desk, and shared publicly in a consistent format as counting progresses. When polling-station results are shared in real time, rewriting the story later through delays or adjustments becomes far more difficult. This is not about accusing anyone in advance. It is about doing what serious democracies have always done: build a public record early, clearly, and continuously.

If Kasama is to remain clean tomorrow, opposition attention must stay fixed on the high-impact wards, especially Kupumaula (20,462), Mulilansolo (17,951), Buseko (14,448), and Chiba (11,524), and on high-volume stations such as Kapongolo Primary School-01, -02, and -03 with 997 voters each. The arithmetic of the register tells you where the battle is. Discipline determines whether the result is protected.