By Brian Matambo | Chawama, Lusaka

Chawama did not just elect a Member of Parliament. It exposed, with uncomfortable clarity, where Zambian politics now stand and where they must go.

To start with, the Patriotic Front did not contest this by-election on its own ticket not because PF is dead, but because the courts have been turned into political playground. Any PF candidate would have been dragged into court endlessly. So, PF did what living political movements have always done in history. It adapted and supported a candidate on the FDD ticket. And the voters understood exactly what that meant. They were not voting for a logo. They were voting for a political movement that refuses to disappear simply because documents are contested at the Registrar of Societies.

A political party is not ink on paper. It is people in wards, polling districts, compounds, markets and churches. PF did not only survive in Chawama, but it has asserted its continued relevance.

UPND poured money into this election. They tried to buy votes. But the people in Chawama remembered the song by the Great Dandy Crazy, MHSRIEP, Donchi Kubeba. So people accepted the gifts. That is the reality of politics in our nation. But when the ballot was finally cast, the arithmetic delivered its verdict. The money was not enough. Those who were bought were not enough. Even against a fragmented opposition, UPND still lost.

That alone should trouble anyone who believes political dominance can be purchased.

The results make the deeper story unavoidable. FDD, backed by PF, obtained 8,085 votes. CF secured 1,534. Independent candidates together collected 894. NCP added 319. EPPP contributed 239. LM had 100. NDC recorded 93. When these opposition votes are placed together, they total 11,264. UPND managed 6,542.

This means the opposition, fragmented and uncoordinated, defeated UPND by 4,722 votes. In percentage terms, more than sixty-two percent of the participating electorate voted against UPND. If the opposition had worked together behind one candidate, this would not have been a competitive election. It would have been a landslide. The margin would not have been symbolic. It would have been humiliating.

Fragmentation did not cost the opposition this seat. It saved UPND from embarrassment.

And yet, even in victory, the numbers are sobering. Out of 93,124 registered voters, only 18,096 participated. More than 80% of registered voters stayed away. That is not indifference. That is political withdrawal. It is a silent referendum on the circumstances under which this by-election was forced upon the nation.

This seat was declared vacant while the Lungu family was still in mourning, and while litigation initiated by the Zambian government in South Africa remained unresolved. Many citizens did not see this by-election as a democratic necessity. They saw it as a continuation of political pursuit. Staying away became, for many, a form of protest.

The ballot box did not feel neutral. And democracy, when it feels partisan, loses participation.

What Chawama has therefore delivered is not just a result, but a warning. UPND has lost a seat. But more dangerously, it has lost moral ground in an urban constituency. FDD has won a seat, but inside a protest environment that speaks more about resistance than celebration.

And now we must face the 2026 question honestly. UPND enters 2026 with Southern Province effectively secured. That is a starting advantage of over one million votes. That is not a theory. It is arithmetic. The opposition begins the race already trailing.

You do not defeat such a headstart with pride. You do not defeat it with parallel egos. You do not defeat it with multiple candidates. You defeat it with unity.

Chawama has shown us the formula. A fragmented opposition still defeated UPND. A united opposition would have crushed it.

This is why the roles played by Given Lubinda, Miles Sampa, Lawrence Sichalwe and Chishimba Kambwili in Chawama matter. These men did not lead with speeches. They led with organisation. They went into the ground. They understood the voter. And they delivered a result. Once again, they demonstrated that PF still possesses political heavyweights who know how to win elections, not debates.

Their leadership in Chawama was not symbolic. It was effective. That reality should now force a national conversation among opposition leaders, supporters and strategists. Not about who is bigger. Not about who deserves what. But about what Zambia needs.

Chawama has made something painfully clear. UPND cannot beat the opposition. Only the opposition can beat itself. And if it continues to do so, 2026 will belong to UPND by default. Not because UPND is invincible, but because its opponents refused to unite.

But if the lesson of Chawama is taken seriously, if egos are subordinated to strategy, if ambition is disciplined by purpose, then 2026 is not a dream. It is a reachable outcome.

Chawama has already written the opening paragraph of that story. The rest is now up to us.